التباين المكاني للجريمة في محافظة عمان لعام 2015 باستخدام الأساليب الكمية ونظم المعلومات الجغرافية

نزيه ابراهيم المناسية, خليل جميل السعايدة

Abstract


أصبحت المعرفة المتعلقة بمكان وقوع الجريمة مكوناً مهماً في السياسة العامة للحماية منها، وذلك من خلال توظيف الأساليب الكمية والنوعية المرتبطة بها. وتهدف هذه الدراسة التعرف إلى طبيعة التوزيع الكمي والنوعي للجرائم في محافظة عمان لعام 2015 حسب التقسيمات الإدارية (المناطق)، وبيان العوامل المؤثرة في هذا التوزيع، وتصنيف مناطق المحافظة حسب مؤشرات ارتكاب الجرائم فيها، وصولاً إلى قاعدة بيانات جغرافية توضح مستوى التباين المكاني في حجم ونوع الجريمة في المحافظة.
اعتمدت الدراسة المنهج الوصفي التحليلي لتحقيق أهدافها؛ حيث تم استخدام أسلوب التحليل الكارتوجرافي من خلال توظيف تقنية نظم المعلومات الجغرافية (GIS) في إعداد الخرائط التي تبين مستوى التباين المكاني للجريمة بين مناطق المحافظة.
توصلت الدراسة إلى مجموعة من النتائج ومنها: أن هنالك تبايناً مكانياً كمياً ونوعياً وأضحاً في توزيع وانتشار الجريمة بين مناطق المحافظة، وأن أهم العوامل المؤثرة في هذا التباين والتوزيع المكاني للجريمة بين هذه المناطق هي: الكثافة السكانية، وعدد السكان، ومساحة المنطقة، والبعد عن مركز ووسط المحافظة.
أوصت الدراسة باتخاذ حزمة من الإجراءات الرسمية الهادفة إلى الحد من تأثير واقع التباين المكاني بين مناطق المحافظة في رفع معدلات ارتكاب الجريمة في بعض المناطق، والعمل على علاج أسباب هذا التباين مما يساهم في الحد من انتشار الجريمة.


Spatial Variation of Crime in Amman Governorate for the year 2015 Using Quantitative Methods and GIS


Knowledge about the spatial incidence of crime has become an important component of public policy. Using both quantitative and qualitative methods, this study aims to identify the distribution of crime in Amman Governorate for the year 2015 according to its administrative divisions (regions) and discuss the factors affecting this distribution. The study then introduces a classification of the Governorate areas by the levels of crime and constructs a geographical database which shows the spatial variation in the size and type of crimes across the Governorate.
The study uses an empirical approach to achieve its objectives. Cartographic analysis was also deployed through the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. A key output is a portfolio of detailed maps which show the spatial variation in the incidence of crime between the regions of the governorate.
The findings of the study show a quantitative and qualitative spatial difference in the distribution and spread of crime between the regions of Amman governorate. The results also show that the most important factors affecting the spatial variation of crime in the governorate include population density, population size, the areal extent of the region, and the distance from the center of the Governorate.
A key recommendation is the development of a package of formal procedures aimed at reducing the impact of the spatial variation between the regions of Amman governorate, specifically to address raised levels of crime rates in some areas through attention to the causes of this spatial variation, and so reduce the spread of crime in the governorate.

Keywords


الجريمة، التباين المكاني للجريمة، محافظة عمان. The Crime, Spatial Variation of Crime, Amman Governorate.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.35682/1300

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